Why These Sanctions May Work on Iran

Let’s play word association. I say “UN sanctions”, and you think… what? “Weak”, “useless”, “waste of time”?

If you didn’t chose one of those, I bet your answer was somewhere in the neighborhood. My sense is that Americans are generally skeptical of imposing sanctions - UN or US - on despotic regimes because their ineffectiveness dents Americans’ self-image. Here we are, the most powerful military, economic, and cultural force in the world, and petty dictators thumb their collective noses at us by surviving - even thriving - under sanctions year after year while their populations feel the effects. Paging Mr. Castro… Mr. F. Castro… you have a call on the white courtesy phone.

Of course, Fidel is joined by his friends in Pyongyang, Tehran, and - for a time - Baghdad, at least until we grew so sick of Saddam skirting around the stupid things that we sure showed him, didn’t we?

So I’ll bet you shook your head disapprovingly as you read that for a fourth time, the United States is working to draw up a new list of sanctions against the Iranian regime if Iran chooses not to seriously engage the international community on their highly suspect nuclear program this Thursday in Geneva.

While there are no guarantees that these sanctions will force Iran to the bargaining table or to give up the kitchen sink on its nuclear program, I believe that this round of sanctions has a better chance of working than any previous attempt.

Here’s why they could - repeat could - be more successful in forcing Iran into serious negotiation on its nuclear program:

1. Remember the goal. It’s to force Iran into serious negotiations on its nuclear program. If sanctions have even the possibility of crippling Tehran, Iran may decide it’s better to talk things through.

2. The Iran regime is hurting right now. Iranian President Ahmadinejad stole an election in June. Everyone knew it, and massive street protests followed. This has left his regime in a precariously fragile spot - cross the electorate again, especially with economic penalties, and expect more headaches if not curtains.

An important caveat here: if the international community plays its hand wrong, the regime could rally Iranians around it while blaming the UN for economic hardship. So caution - and a way to talk to the Iranian street - is at a premium.

3. What they target: These sanctions target Iran’s gas imports. Wait, Iran imports gas? I thought they were sitting on mounds of the stuff… Well, yes, they are. However, Iran does not have the capacity to refine enough to bring to its domestic market. So, Tehran imports some 40 percent of its consumption. And cutting off the supply will drive up the price at the pump…

4. Who’s on board: Previous UN attempts to sanction Iran haven’t exactly been bear-claw tight. That’s because - though they were passed through the UN Security Council - they had to be watered down to avoid Russian and Chinese vetoes.

That may be changing. Russia has indicated that it may be sympathetic to harsher sanctions, despite recent ambiguity on the subject by Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. If Russia can be swayed to support stiff sanctions on oil and gas, they would be used as leverage to pressure China into getting on board. Chinese thirst for Iranian oil continues to be a major obstacle, but it is at least conceivable that China could be brought along under the right circumstances.

Now go back and read #1 - Iran may decide to avoid any gamble with popular instability. Success is hardly assured, but with a few breaks the right way, it’s conceivable that Iran might view the lesser of two evils as negotiation when faced with an unpredictable domestic situation. Remember: the sanctions themselves don’t have to work, but it’s the real threat of them working that counts.