New UN sanctions are the right move.

We’ve heard this all before, right?  That the UN is about to “get tough with Iran” for its nuclear program.  Three times previously the world’s governing body has imposed sanctions on Tehran for its hush-hush uranian enrichment facilities, and three times previously those sanctions have been generally ineffective, focusing on items like arms sales and financial assets hidden abroad.

But this time, the UN is serious.  Really.  The difference is in the proposed sanctions’ target:    Iran’s imported gasoline.  You might object by stating that Iran has plenty of its own gas, and why would the mullahs possibly need to import any? Seems silly, even.  But a critical lack of petroleum refineries in-country means that Iran actually buys some 40 percent of its commercial-ready fuel from abroad.  Blocking those imports would significantly increase prices for electricity and transportation.  The UN is hoping that the resulting public outcry from higher prices could prove to be the action-forcing mechanism that gets Tehran to the nuclear bargaining table.  The good news is that Ahmadinejad has signaled a willingness to talk, even if he claims that Iran’s nuclear program is off the table.  Gasoline sanctions might just open up that topic as well.

Of course, the UN is running a risk - Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez has promised to export 20,000 barrels a day of refined gasoline to Iran to provide a strategic reserve cushion before sanctions take effect.  It’s unclear whether that’s enough to dampen the price-rises, but if so, Ahmadinejad may attempt deflect public anger at West for his country’s ills.

But this time, your average Iranian is in a less tolerant mood.  Following June’s sham presidential election and subsequent massive street protests, Ahmadinejad’s attempts to pin the sanctions on Washington will fall on more skeptical, and perhaps outright distrustful, ears.  Under the right conditions, it’s conceivable that Ahmadinejad could misread the public mood entirely and re-ignite June’s protests.

That’s why these sanctions are the right move:  Iran probably wants to talk, and the sanctions put a price on Iranian inaction.  Furthermore, they target Iran’s pressure point better than their predecessors, and do so at a time when Tehran is on shakey ground with its public.