Israel election poll: Not good news if you want peace

Benjamin Netanyahu’s hawkish Likud party has opened up a “large, decisive” lead over Tzipi Livni’s centrist Kadima party in a poll conducted by Haaretz.  This is a significant reversal of fortunes for Kadima from three weeks ago, when they were essentially tied.  As I’ve written here and here, if he wins, Netanyahu isn’t serious about negotiating (and more importantly compromising) with the Palestinians, especially if Hamas is running the show.

But we’re only in mid-November and the election isn’t until February.  From Haaretz:

The main question is whether the significant improvement in the Likud’s showing is temporary, the inevitable result of the parade of new players presented by Netanyahu to the media at the rate of one a week - Benny Begin, Dan Meridor, Assaf Hefet and Moshe Ya’alon - or the start of a genuine trend. Only time will tell. …

Once more it must be noted that we are at the start of the campaign. The gloves are still on, Netanyahu has not yet been worked over by Kadima or by Labor. Things could definitely change. But it’s clear that the mood on the Israeli street is plainly in Likud’s favor. Labor isn’t in the game.