Prospects for Israeli peace

Israel is facing an election this coming February, and the Washington Post reports today that the lame-duck governments in Washington and Tel Aviv will press on with peace talks:

Israeli, Palestinian and international negotiators pledged Sunday to continue peace talks launched last year by President Bush, even though the quest for peace will certainly outlast his administration.

But future talks will be held in an increasingly uncertain terrain, with the prospect of a hawk coming to power in Israel’s parliamentary elections in February and deeply divided Palestinian factions controlling the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. It is also unclear how high Mideast peacemaking will figure on President-elect Barack Obama’s agenda.

Despite the impending failure to meet the target date of year’s end, set at a peace conference in Annapolis last November, Israel and the Palestinians affirmed their commitment to the process.

Israel’s choice next year pits current Kadima Party leader and Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni against Likud Party leader Bibi Netanyahu.  If you don’t follow Israeli politics, in broad strokes Livni is the dove; Netanyahu is the hawk.

Election polls are tight - two separate studies by major Israeli newspapers show Livni’s party eeking out a two-seat majority in the 120-seat Knesset (parliament).  But there’s plenty of time, and that could certainly change. 

The positive trend is that another poll by the Harry S. Truman Center at Hebrew University in Jersulem that claims 56.5 percent of all Israelis think Israel should negotiate with a Hamas-lead Palestinian government (currently the case), while 42 percent oppose.  Of course, these numbers could be the reason that just today Netanyahu signalled a willingness to negotiate.  (However, I note that willingness to talk and willingness to compromise are two entirely different things.  As I’ve written here, I don’t think Bibi is in the mood to do the latter no matter what he says.)

So how does this circle back to the continuation of negotiations during the lame-duck sessions?  Given the possibility of a Netanyahu victory, I think both sides are trying to get as much accomplished and locked in as possible, if for no better reason than to prevent a Netanyahu administration from back-tracking. 

Also, with the general public apparently favoring negotiations, the US could be bolstering Livni’s election prospects by showing her skills and accomplishments.  Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas (a PLO member and Hamas rival) clearly favors negotiations, so a Livni victory is in his interest as well.