SILVIO WATCH!

He’s at it again:

ROME — When the wife of Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi took to the front pages this month to announce that she wanted a divorce and accused him of dallying with very young women, it seemed like yet another storm that Italy’s most powerful man would easily weather. For years, Italy has winked at Mr. Berlusconi, where other nations might have glared.

But then things took a turn for the surreal.

First came a rare and inescapable torrent of speculation — in blogs, on television and radio, at dinner tables across Italy — about the nature and origins of his relationship with Noemi Letizia, a pretty blond aspiring model whose 18th birthday party he attended in Naples last month, and who has said she calls him Daddy. This was the party that caused Mr. Berlusconi’s wife to declare their marriage, one year older than Ms. Letizia, over.

More recent are allegations, potentially more damaging, that Mr. Berlusconi, 72, invited Ms. Letizia and about 40 other girls, some like her at the time younger than 18, to spend New Year’s Eve at one of his villas in Sardinia. …

Critics say the debate is not just about sex, but reflects an inattention to Italy’s deep problems, like the economy, or reconstruction after the earthquake that left 70,000 people homeless in central Italy. The leader of another opposition party recently compared him to Nero, fiddling while Rome burned. …

Or, as the right-wing politician Francesco Storace said in a recent radio interview, “People don’t vote for Berlusconi because he tells the truth; they vote for him because they like him.”

President Obama is giving a speech right now promote a report signalling that cybersecurity will become a strategic priority.  He’s creating a new cybersecurity coordinator in the White House, but hasn’t named that person.  It was suspected that Melissa Hathaway - who lead the White House’s 60 day review of our cybersecurity deficiencies - would be named, but no.

One of the more interesting - and necessary - steps that Obama is promoting is starting a national dialogue and information campaign to educate the public.  That’s important because unless you’ve had your identity stolen online, or had a virus uploaded to your computer, I think it’s very difficult to envision what a cyber-breech really looks like.  You can’t see a cyber attack like you can a terrorist attack.  A cyber attack has to be experienced, and most of us just haven’t so we’re unfamiliar with it, and probably don’t feel it’s as much of a priority.

Hopefully the president’s push will change that.

Here’s the audio from my appearance on the Montel Williams show yesterday. It loads quickly - I come on at minute 14:00.

Harretz Newspaper (Israel):

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas will be pushing United States President Barack Obama on Thursday to facilitate peace with Israel through a larger solution to the Middle East conflict.

Top Palestinian officials traveling with Abbas said the Palestinian leader was working to repackage a 2002 Saudi plan that called for exchange of Arab land conquered by Israel in the 1967 Six Day War for normalized relations with Arab countries….

Apparently realizing the difficulties he faces on a bilateral basis with Israel, Abbas will be trying to sell - with the help of Jordan’s Abdullah, Egypt’s Mubarak and Saudi Arabia’s Abdullah - a more ambitious peace plan that would include benefits to Israel and the larger Arab world.

Abbas has been incredibly weak since the PLO/Hamas (aka West Bank/Gaza) Palestinian split of over two years ago.  To bolster his position, it doesn’t surprise me that he’s eager to bring other governments on board.

It’s probably a savvy move — the more Arab states in the mix shows the Obama administration, the Israelis, and the Palestinians that Abbas is willing to take ownership of the problem, thereby strengthening his position.  It also puts the onus on a hesitatant Netanyahu-lead government to react in a constructive manner.

Andrew Exum at Abu Muqawama bemoans the nearly toxic term “democracy promotion” in reaction to a sensible paper on Egypt from the Project On Middle East Democracy (POMED).

Exum’s right - “democracy promotion” as an ideology way highjacked by the neocon cabal of the early 2000s, when that ravenous clique thought the most effective means of promoting democracy was at the business end of a Howitzer.

Turns out their methodology was wrong. Who knew?  But it stands that politicos and policy wonks have been hesitant to use the term ever since, fearing that embrace of even a slice of Bush’s foreign policy would be a non-starter.

But as an American foreign policy goal, democracy promotion is still extremely valid — the world would be a safer, more stable place with solid democratic governments the globe over.  To that end, the United States should work to bolster democratic reforms across the world, and especially in the Middle East.  Our methods should be, ahem, much subtler and our timetables more focused on gradual democratic evolution, but the overall object is sound.

POMED’s paper suggests:

What is needed is a middle ground – a new strategy for American policy toward Egypt that neither neglects concerns for human rights and democracy nor pursues them in isolation from other policy priorities. By more thoroughly integrating U.S. support for gradual democratic reform into the broader bilateral policy, such efforts can be made more consistent over time and, ultimately, more effective.

• Change the Tone: Adopt a balanced public tone that is consistently supportive of the rights of all Egyptians.
• Establish a Strategic Dialogue: Launch a regular forum for addressing sensitive reform issues behind closed doors.
• Use Positive Conditionality to Encourage Reform: Offer a new, multilateral package of economic aid and trade benefits if reform benchmarks are met.
• Bolster Effective Democracy Assistance Programs: Focus on civil society programs for a large, diverse sector of independent Egyptian actors.
• Step Up Interagency Coordination: Strengthen mechanisms for policy coordination, consistent with a prioritization of reform in the bilateral relationship
• Work with Europe: Seek opportunities for multilateral dialogue on reform goals and criteria, toward the goal of coordinating initiatives and incentives
• Engage with Political Opposition Movements: Engage with a variety of opposition actors, including nonviolent Islamists.

Sounds right to these ears.

All that’s left is to give the term “democracy promotion” a facelift, making it again palpable to the otherwise gun-shy (sorry, bad pun).  Since “rogue state rollback” has been taken, how about “local government accountability”?

Judging from the media coverage, you’ve probably come away with the distinct impression that the White House is an isolated, weak inmate to Pyongyang’s taunting jailor.  Headlines like “Facing Down North Korea with Weak Words“, “North Korea Laughs at US” and “Tested Early by North Korea, Obama Has Few Options” paint a perilous picture of a feckless administration staring blankly at an all-powerful North Korea.

But really, nothing can be further from the truth.

The first principle is to recognize America’s overarching diplomatic goal:  a nuclear-free North Korea.  Notably, it’s NOT to mindlessly and aimlessly punish North Korea in revenge for conducting a nuclear test.  Some sort of punishment may be sub-set of the ultimate goal, but any smack-down must be tempered and considered through the larger frame.

The second principle is that diplomacy takes time, and often quite a lot of it, to be ultimately effective.  It flies in the face of Americana’s culture of instant gratification that while North Korea is off exploding nuclear charges and firing rockets, we have to wait out a long-term solution that flexes our brains and our patience, and leaves our muscle as a last resort.

Third, the American administration does have several options available in pursuance of the larger goal: The White House is coordinating with China and Russia, it’s considering sanctions against the regime, and it’s making clear that the international community won’t stand for this type of behavior.  The administration’s short-term goal is to get North Korea to realize that it’s in Pyongyang’s own security interest to return to the negotiating table.  In the process, the White House is careful to neither reward the DPRK’s bad behavior or put America in a position of negotiating weakness.  That means doing a lot of behind-the-scenes work to set the stage for carefully crafted diplomacy that smacks down Kim Jong Il but also entices him to negotiate.

The optics are bad - I accept that.  North Korea detonates a nuclear war head and we go to the UN Security Council to build an international coalition against them.  Would it be more sexy and immediately satisfying to rouse Sherman from the grave and sending him marching through Pyongyang?  Of course, but doing so would only achieve ultimate goal of a nuclear-free North Korea at devastating cost.

The press will accuse America of being weak and hamstrung over the course of the diplomatic process, but the world will be more secure over the long run.

… in case anyone was wondering (Jed), Sonia Sotomayor has, “issued no major decisions concerning abortion, the death penalty, gay rights or national security.”